The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering < 1000 km². During its life cycle, cyclone Ockhi underwent rapid, later in its mature stage. Several studies on tropical cyclone genesis potential index (GPI) mainly using atmospheric parameters (relative/absolute vorticity, relative humidity, vertical wind shear, potential instability, vertical velocity etc.) These environmentally sensitive areas are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion, accretion and natural disasters as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth, resource development and pollution. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. A threshold, day prior to cyclone formation, GPP over the region was, in the range 20–30 and on the day of genesis (29 Novem-, ber 2017) it exceeded the threshold (>30). These threats have made the coastal zone a priority for coastline monitoring programs and sustainable coastal management. A rapid intensification index (RII) is developed for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Department of Geology, V.O. Climatology of cyclone tracks and the UOHCS and in situ observation from Argo suggest that most of the tracks in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons are influenced by the high UOHCS (>120 kj/cm2). ACE accounts for the com-, bined strength and duration of tropical cyclones, calculated by summing the squares of the six-, mum sustained surface wind speed (kt) during the dura-, or higher. Previous studies have shown that, filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), MJO in phase 4 is conducive for cyclogenesis in the, south of Bay of Bengal by ensuing increased vorticity and, ed from phase 3 to phase 4, it resulted in anomalous, westerlies over the entire south Bay of Bengal (near the, equator) in response to the shift in the convection centre, westerlies in the south occurred along with ano, easterlies over a narrow zone centred near 10, wind pattern led to the development of cyclonic circula-, tion which along with anomalous high SSTs mentioned, above provided conducive conditions for the genesis of. Landsat 8 imageries of Pre and Post Ockhi where compared and changes made by cyclone Ockhi has been estimated in the present study. Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, Chennai, Tamilnadu, India. impacts of urbanization. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Thus, an improved genesis potential parameter (IGPP) is introduced in this study which can capture both cyclogenesis and daily evolution of cyclonic systems over NIO. This study showed a continuous decrease in agricultural lands in Med{stroke}imurje County. Most of the severe cyclones are forming over the UOHC range between 40–80 kj/cm2 in the Bay of Bengal. Thus, cyclone Ockhi intensified from a depression to a cyclonic, storm very quickly, compared to the climatological time, provements in the prediction of genesis, intensity and, track of cyclones in the north Indian Ocean in the recent, The model forecasts could capture this system only 1–2, to 2 December 0000 UTC, it underwent rapid intensifica-, category with a wind speed of 80 kt (41.2, 0600 UTC. The SST runs improve landfall position and time prediction by 20% and 33% respectively. Star denotes the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. A large percentage of the world’s population is concentrated along the coastal zones. Preprint of the article submitted to Earth Science Reviews. accumulated cyclone energy were significantly larger The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. The genesis potential parameter developed by Kotal et al. NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite pass on 30 November 2017, 0824. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique-is developed. Before the cyclone impact the wate, Ockhi impact in the study area, the cultivated land like paddy, figure 10 illustrates the increase and decrease in the total area, km2 after the cyclone. Significant buildings construction, construction of the reservoir lakes on the Drava River and construction of a highway were major drives of LU/LC changes in Med{stroke}imurje County over the study period. Spectral band and their properties o, Fig 3 & 4. Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal, Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index for Bay of Bengal During Peak Post-Monsoon (October-November) Season Including Atmosphere-Ocean Parameters, Role of upper ocean parameters in the genesis, intensification and tracks of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, Evaluation of official tropical cyclone landfall forecast issued by India Meteorological Department, The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Impacts on Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity, Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, Tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and it's application over the north Indian Sea, Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and a Rapid Intensification (RI) index, The NCEP/NCAR 40-years reanalysis project, CHANSE: Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, IndOOS, the Indian Ocean Observing System, Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020), Springer Nature (Open Access). There is significant decrease in LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to 2003–2008 due to the modernisation programme of IMD. While traversing the southern part of the Bay of Bengal, favourable conditions established it to consolidate into a cyclonic storm on 29 th December of 2017 and devastated parts of Srilanka and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu. The Arabian Sea needs to be closely monitored for future Disturbed forests were identified by classifying the composite and the continuous change imagery with the supervised classification method. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are embedded in regions where the upper-level divergence, lower-level relative vorticity and relative humidity are more and vertical winds shear is less than certain threshold values of the respective variables. The frequency of natural disasters like floods, cyclones etc have increased significantly over the last decade particularly in the coastal line of Bangladesh which is asserted as the impact of climate change. It con-, tinued on the same track till 4 December 1500 UTC. Water management strategies and feedbacks of water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the IGP basin level. change maps. The modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) algorithm was applied to TM (1989 and 2010) and ETM (2000) images to discriminate the land–water interface and the on-screen digitizing approach was used over the MNDWI images of 1989, 2000 and 2010 for coastline extraction. Moreover, IGPP outperforms KGPP in distinguishing between developing and nondeveloping storms by accurately representing the storm genesis, evolution, rapid intensification and intensity variations. St, ). based on IMD cyclone data for the Arabian Sea post-, monsoon season (October–December) during the period, Cyclone Ockhi developed as a depression on 29 Novem-, ber 2017 0300 UTC in the Lakshadweep Sea, south of, from 29 to 30 November under the influence of upper, sified to a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained wind, to move in the northwest direction till 2 December and, attained a peak wind speed of 85 kt (43.7, December 0300 UTC, cyclone Ockhi changed its direc-, tion due to the influence of an upper-level anticyclone, which was anchored over the eastern parts of the Indian, southerly steering over the central Arabian Sea, resulting, in the cyclone to move in a northward direction. This leads to increase of livelihood demands and various types It intensified rapidly from a dynamic conditions for the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. Cyclone Ockhi: Fishers and coastal community perspective 7 Session 4: Panel Discussion 2 9 Disaster preparedness at sea: Ensuring effective early warning systems and better prediction of cyclones 9 Session 5: Group Discussion 11 Session 6: Panel Discussion 3 13 Disaster response and relief: Institutional coordination and collaboration 13 unusual long track was steered by upper-level winds. It is found that the new GPI is better correlated with the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) compared with the existing GPI which was developed for the north Indian Ocean and presently used by India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. It is found that 32% of all very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) and all super cyclonic storms (SUCS) underwent RI phase at least once during their lifetime. this area is downloaded and processed in GIS tool for the year 1992, 2005 and 2015 to produce the LULC Specifically, CHANSE project will: (i) estimate surface and groundwater availability under current and future short-term weather predictions and anthropogenic activities within the IGP using a fully coupled, land surface-groundwater modelling setup; (ii) investigate the propagation, in space and time, of interactions of water uses and needs within the natural system by integrating novel consumer and ecological flow demand modules; (iii) provide regional predictions of decadal, seasonal and sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall and flood forecasting for the IGP, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.0 to inform development of alternative water management strategies; (iv) translate the improved understanding of Human And Natural Systems into IGP's water management planning for water, food and ecological security. Also described is a general hill-climbing algorithm which can be used with any measure of structure to attempt to climb to the optimum partition. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC landfall forecast issued by IMD during 2003–2013 (11 years) by calculating the landfall point forecast error (LPE) and landfall time forecast error (LTE). As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. conditions for the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. (2009) is computed based on the product of four variables, namely: vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the inverse of vertical wind shear at all grid points over the area. The indices consisted of near-infrared to red ratios, normalized difference vegetation index, Tasseled Cap index of greenness, brightness, and wetness (TCW), and soil-adjusted vegetation index. rapid intensification of the cyclone highlights th, for efficiently incorporating the coupled ocean–, future storms since climate projections indicate that, the rapid warming in the basin will continue into the, ral disasters on earth. C were observed over the south Arabian Sea, ) convective available potential energy (CAPE) (J, ack of cyclone Ockhi from its day of formation. b, Track of cyclone Ockhi. TCHP was, at every grid point from seven days prior till the genesis, shear of horizontal winds was computed based on 200, were obtained by removing the daily means based on the, reference period from 1979 to 2017. Coastline positions were highlighted to infer the erosion/accretion sectors along the coast, and the coastline changes were calculated. Developing Java and Android Applications with the Integration of GIS technology. Cyclone Ockhi damage in Sri Lanka (2).jpg 4,128 × 3,096; 5 MB Cyclone Ockhi makes landfall in the Maldives.jpg 4,096 × 2,304; 1.36 MB JTWC io0317.gif 1,132 × 876; 35 KB depression to a cyclone in a span of 9 h and further to This study compared performance of four change detection algorithms with six vegetation indices derived from pre- and post-Katrina Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and a composite of the TM bands 4, 5, and 3 in order to select an optimal remote sensing technique for identifying forestlands disturbed by Hurricane Katrina. The 3-hourly cyclone Ockhi track and a detailed report can be found elsewhere (refer to Table S2). Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. In this study an attempt has been made to show the importance of the upper ocean parameters known as the upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and the UOHC with stratification (UOHCS). It is found that the new GPI is better correlated with the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) compared with the existing GPI which was developed for the north Indian Ocean and presently used by India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. These erosion and accretion processes played an active role in the changes of coastline during the study period. The present analysis using a modified-GPP shows, that along with atmospheric conditions, the ocean surface, and subsurface also played a significant role in cycloge-. In Bangladesh, cyclone and tidal surge are considered as the most catastrophic phenomena for coastal regions. Thus, the modified GPP which incorporates upper, , Phase diagram of Madden–Julian Oscillat. Super Cyclone Pam (2015) formed in the central tropical Pacific under conditions that included El Nino Modoki and the passage of a convectively-enhanced phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the western Pacific. It is centered at Latitude 19°N and Longitude 71.3°E, around 260 km southsouthwest of Surat and 140 km west of Mumbai. Mohanty, S., Nadimpalli, R., Osuri, K. K., Pattanayak, S., Mohanty, Krishnamohan, K. S., Mohanakumar, K. and Joseph, P. V., The, India Meteorological Department Forecaster’s Guide, Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J. and. The study witnessed increased socioeconomic condition of people due to the irrigation system which ensures round the year cultivation. This is, in line with a recent study which shows that anthro, ic warming has increased the probability of extremely, mainly steered by the upper level (400–200, anticyclone over eastern parts of the Indian land mass at the, potential temperature and a strong wind shear, thus weaken-, ing have uncertainties due to lack of skilful coupling, of cyclone Ockhi. Cyclone Ockhi continues to weaken gradually and is now seen as a Deep Depression over east-central Arabian Sea. The error statistics (11 kt at 6 hr to 6 kt at 24 hr) of the decay model shows that the model could predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable success. The cross track error of SST run is comparable (44km) with average errors available for this basin (34km); and along track errors are improved by 60% as compared to CNTL as well as average errors of the basin. Situation Report 2 - Cyclone Ockhi 7th December 2017 (9:00 am) A. Cylone Storm - Ockhi OCKHI system further weakened, laid as low pressure area over south coastal Gujarat and This paper describes the development strategy of the CPS and performance skill of the system during 2013 for seven cyclonic disturbances. Landsat 8 imageries of Pre and Post Ockhi where compared and changes made by cyclone Ockhi has been estimated in the present study. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. ion (MJO) Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) from 1 October to 31 December 2017. anomalies from August to December 2017. 2. Genesis potential parameter (shaded) without (a-d) and with (e-h) ocean parameters from 26 to 29 November 2017. Plain (IGP). In contrast it experienced an accretion of 9916 hectares. Eleventh Report on ‘The Cyclone Ockhi - Its Impact on Fishermen and damage caused by it’. The analysis of the parameter and its effectiveness during cyclonic disturbances in 2010 affirm its usefulness as a predictive signal (4-5 days in advance) for cyclogenesis over the North Indian Sea and for determining potential for intensification of developing and non-developing systems at the early stages of development. TNPSC Monthly Current affairs pdf in Tamil & English - Students can get TNPSC daily current affairs pdf in tamil & english, TNPSC Portal current affairs,TNPSC Current affairs in tamil pdf… The LPEs are less for climatologically moving/straight moving TCs than for the recurving/looping TCs. The area of each year polygon vector is calculated using the Qgis field calculator tool. Disaster management of an event like Cyclone, Flood or Earthquake etc. © 2008-2021 ResearchGate GmbH. The barren, open, scrub land area has increased from 173.1 km2 to, Fig 10. relative humidity between 700 and 500 hPa; troposphere instability which is the temperature differ-, wind shear of horizontal winds between 200 and 850 hPa, is a measure of the ocean heat content from the, average temperature of two consecutive layers with a, isotherm (m). In its classification that can be exploited by other algorithms that require clear pixels. 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